VIETNAM LEADS THE POTENTIAL WINNERS OF THE UNITED STATES – CHINA TATTLE.
Despite the agreement concluded by the two countries on May 11, China's exports to the United States are expected to decline sharply. Who will benefit from this reduction? Mainly other Asian economies, with Vietnam in the lead, according to a study by Global Sovereign Advisory (GSA).
China's total exports are expected to decline by $188 billion (USD billion) this year, down 5.3%, according to cabinet projections (GSA). A decline equivalent to a loss of 1.06% of national GDP. The cause, obviously, is the increase in American customs duties (+31% on average on Chinese products). Despite its diversification efforts in recent years, China remains dependent on the American market since 13% of its exports are destined there.
Mexico and Vietnam are of course in pole position, followed by Canada, to take over the world's leading workshop with potential gains of up to USD 8 billion and USD 10 billion respectively.
Without reaching such levels, other economies having similarly focused on production and export are called upon to play an important part in this process of substitution for Chinese imports. Thus, according to GSA, Malaysia could direct 41% of its exports to the United States. Thailand, Taiwan and India are also well placed to take advantage of this new international trade situation.
