RISKS: GLOBAL MARITIME TRANSPORT SECURITY THREATENED BY GEOPOLITICAL STORM
The world maritime fleet has strengthened. While it was losing around 100 ships per year ten years ago, this toll has since reduced considerably to reach 27 boats decommissioned in 2024, according to the latest report from Allianz Commercial on maritime safety. However, the sector remains under pressure, particularly due to geopolitical risk.
No international trade without the merchant navy. Regardless of annual ship losses, 90% of global trade is carried out by sea. Last year, the number of maritime accidents or incidents increased by around 10% (3,310 compared to 2,963 in 2023).
Fishing vessels (10 losses) represent almost 40% of vessels lost in 2024, followed by cargo ships (6) and chemical tankers (3). Bottom losses (12) were the main cause of losses, with a share of almost 50%. Fires and explosions (7) come in second place and remain stable.
The British Isles suffered the highest number of incidents (799), followed by the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea (694). Machine breakages and breakdowns (1,860) caused more than half of the incidents worldwide in 2024, followed by collisions (251) and fires and explosions. There were 250 fire incidents in 2024, up 20% year-on-year, the highest total in a decade.
Ship abandonments
If the loss ratio has improved over the past 10 years, geopolitical risks, which have multiplied in recent years, could put an end to the downward trend in ship losses, estimate Allianz analysts.
“The sector faces a complex environment marked by attacks on shipping, ship detentions, sanctions and damage to infrastructure such as critical submarine cables, while reports of interference and GPS jamming on ships are increasing,” they observe.
American customs tariffs, Sino-American tensions, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, increase in the number of ghost ships carrying Russian oil (17% of tankers according to some estimates)... Disruptions in maritime transport have also had consequences on personnel: a record number of sailors were abandoned last year with a total of 3,133 people, an increase of 87%. The number of abandoned vessels jumped by 136% (312 boats).
Increase in cargo thefts
At the same time, the risks linked to the ship and its cargo do not diminish. Inflation, although stabilizing, has increased repair and claim costs. Fires and misdeclared cargo remain the main concerns for large ships and the economic crisis has caused a sharp increase in cargo theft (+27% in North America).
Finally, the energy transition poses new risks for the sector. According to the Allianz Commercial report, it indeed leads to “an increase in project freight exposures and risks due to increased investments in renewable energy and infrastructure, with global energy investments expected to exceed US$3 trillion for the first time in 2024.”
The result: “Project freight, which includes high-value and oversized items such as manufacturing plant machinery and wind turbines, presents significant claim risks due to potential damage or delays. »
Faced with this pile of risks and the uncertainty that currently reigns over international trade, maritime transport will have to navigate carefully in the months and years to come to stay the course.
