Japan: GDP falls due to Trump's tariffs
As of November 17, 2025, Japan's economy is showing alarming signals. GDP is falling, exports are falling and growth is losing steam. This dynamic weakens a model still dependent on international trade. American customs pressure, the weakness of the yen and industrial adjustments are now structuring a crucial debate to understand the future of the country.
A brutal slowdown that plunges Japan back into economic turmoil
Japan's economy is contracting significantly, even though growth seemed to have stabilized for more than a year. The latest published figures highlight an annualized decline of 1.8%, according to Reuters analysts. This contraction, attributed to several economic factors, marks the first recession in six quarters. Although the industrial transition has progressed, growth remains vulnerable to any external slowdown.
The drop in GDP materializes in a quarterly contraction of 0.4%, as indicated by official data relayed by Reuters. This weakening of Japanese growth, visible despite supportive policies, is part of a cycle marked by less resilience in the face of global fluctuations. The administration believes, however, that “even if the effects of United States customs policies are mainly affecting the automobile industry, the economy is recovering moderately,” according to the Cabinet Office.
Japanese exports hit hard by US customs
The customs issue now constitutes one of the major obstacles for the Japanese economy, particularly since the introduction of reinforced tariffs by the Trump administration. According to Reuters, these measures could cause the country's economy to contract after six quarters of continuous growth. The statistics confirm this shock: Japanese exports fell by 2.6% in July 2025, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. The evolution of trade, essential for growth, is now hampered by international uncertainty and the slowdown in American demand.
The situation deteriorates further in September 2025, when exports to the United States fall by 13.3%. At the same time, automobile sales collapsed by 24.2%, as indicated by Makiko Yamazaki for Reuters. For Japan, this development strikes at the heart of its industrial model. Despite growth in exports to China (+5.8%), the net effect remains negative. Moreover, tariff uncertainty “has increased significantly,” warns Kazuo Ueda of the Bank of Japan, according to Reuters. Growth is declining and is reasonably fueling fears of a prolonged crisis.
