China: trade surplus soars and exceeds $1,000 billion for the first time
If exports to the United States fell sharply, the increase in those to the rest of the world largely compensated. Enough to reinforce the fears of Europeans, who are worried about the influx of Chinese products.
China's colossal trade surplus has reached an unprecedented level, exceeding $1,000 billion for the first time in 2025. Exports across the rest of the world have offset the sharp drop in deliveries to the United States, indicate official figures released Monday, December 8.
China's positive trade balance with the rest of the world from January to November was $1.08 trillion, the Customs Administration said. “China’s trade surplus this year has already exceeded that of last year, and we expect it to increase further next year,” Zichun Huang of Capital Economics wrote in a note. “Weak exports to the United States were largely offset by shipments to other markets” in November, she said.
China's exports rose 5.9% in November year-on-year, faster than expected, but fell 28.6% to the United States alone during the same period, the Customs administration said. The overall export figure is better than the forecasts of the Bloomberg agency, which expected an increase of 4%.
This improvement follows a decline in exports of 1.1% year-on-year in October, the first since February coinciding with a resurgence in trade tensions with the United States.
Low domestic consumption
Imports increased by 1.9% year-on-year in November, at a slower pace than the 3% increase forecast by Bloomberg, a new sign of sluggish domestic consumption. “The rebound in export growth in November helps to alleviate weak domestic demand,” commented Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note. “Economic momentum slowed in the fourth quarter, partly due to continued weakness in the real estate sector,” he adds.
Exports have for years served as the engine of China's economy, with domestic consumption stubbornly sluggish and a prolonged debt crisis in the vast real estate sector. China also faces high youth unemployment and a rapid aging of its population. Chinese leaders, who are aiming for overall growth of five percent this year, are due to hold a major meeting this week devoted to economic planning.
European fears
China and the United States have engaged in a bitter trade war in 2025 after Donald Trump's return to the White House. A summit between the American president and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on October 30 in South Korea resulted in reciprocal detente measures, at least temporary. Exports to the United States represented 33.8 billion dollars in November, compared to 47.3 billion at the same time last year. Exports to the United States fell almost throughout the year. But they remained resilient overall.
China's European partners in particular are alarmed to see that with the trade confrontation with the United States, its products are flowing into their market. They are urging China to boost its domestic consumption. French President Emmanuel Macron, just returned from China where he pleaded the European cause at the end of last week, threatened Beijing on Sunday with customs duties "in the coming months" if China does not take measures to reduce the trade deficit which continues to widen with the EU. The protectionism of the Trump administration “is increasing our problems by redirecting Chinese flows massively on our markets,” he told the French daily Les Echos.
The head of German diplomacy Johann Wadephul will be in China until Tuesday. Already affected by geopolitical disagreements, relations between Berlin and Beijing have cooled further in recent months with trade tensions between the EU and China. This did not prevent China from once again becoming Germany's leading trading partner this year, replacing the United States.
