World trade: An annual increase of 2.5% until 2034, according to BCG
Global trade, thanks to its resilience, could grow by 2.5% per year until 2034 despite increasing geopolitical fragmentation, indicates a new study from Boston Consulting Group (BCG). This growth would be slightly faster than global GDP, increasing from around $23,000 billion in 2024 to nearly $30,000 billion in 2034. The trade routes taken by these goods would, however, be profoundly changed, underlines the firm in this study.
The most likely scenario is the more moderate one of a “fragmented multi-node trade network”, in which trade flows revolve around four main nodes employing distinct approaches. These nodes are the United States, China and two informal groupings of economies that BCG calls “Plurilateralists” and “BRICS+ excluding China”.
The United States is projected to see its share of global trade in goods decline as it maintains its “America First” policy, which prioritizes domestic production over imports. As for the Chinese giant, its trade should continue its good momentum, the country remaining the main trading partner of the countries of the South. For their part, the so-called “pluralist” countries will experience growth in trade above the average between them and most countries in the South until 2034, underlines BCG.
Finally, the BRICS+ countries, excluding China, will develop their commercial relations with the countries of the South as well as with China, while the countries located outside these four poles are grouped in the “Rest of the world” category. The latter will be independent actors who will play an increasingly important role in the future, “both as markets and suppliers of goods and services”.
