Foreign trade: acceleration of exports in the third quarter of 2025
France's trade returned to a certain dynamism between July and September 2025, according to data published by INSEE. A short-lived improvement because these flows could contract in the last quarter.
It has been a long time since French exports have recorded such a performance. In the third quarter of last year, they actually jumped by 3.2% while they showed an increase of 0.3% in the previous quarter, according to data from INSEE.
This improvement is mainly based on manufactured products (+4.8%), particularly aeronautics, while exports of energy (mainly electricity) and agricultural products increased by 2.3% and 0.6% respectively. Exports of services, which had fallen by 1% in the spring, started to rise again (+0.6%).
Imports, for their part, maintained their pace (+1.3% after +1.5%). Those of services fell slightly, by -0.2% but to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter (-1.1%). Imports of manufactured products remained robust (+1.9% after +2.6%), as did those of energy (+0.8% after +0.3%) and agricultural products (+3.2% after +6.9%).
This improvement in exports in the third quarter of 2025 could, however, be short-lived. According to INSEE forecasts, they should indeed remain growing in the last quarter of 2025 but slow down significantly (+ 0.5%), in the wake of manufacturing exports (+ 0.8%). Aeronautical exports should remain stable, estimates the National Institute of Statistics, even if technical difficulties have forced Airbus to lower its delivery targets for the year.
Slight trade balance surplus
Outside of aeronautics, INSEE expects a contraction in deliveries of invoiced products, particularly in the automobile and pharmaceutical industries. After two quarters of increase, imports are expected to decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025 (-1.0% forecast after +1.3%), with a sharp decline in pharmaceutical purchases, and in energy (-4.8% after +0.8%).
Finally, thanks to the fall in the price of oil, the external balance of trade in goods and services should improve, even becoming a slight surplus.
According to the latest Customs figures, in November 2025, exports of goods recorded a slight increase, from EUR 200 million to EUR 52.2 billion. Imports fell by EUR 400 million to EUR 56.2 billion. The balance of manufactured products improved by 200 M EUR, mainly due to the clear increase in consumer goods (+ 400 M EUR). The latter becomes positive again (+ EUR 300 million) for the first time since July 2024.
