WORLD TRADE HOLDS ITS BREATH: TOWARDS AN ECONOMIC EARTHQUAKE IF THE STRAIT OF HOMUZ IS CLOSED
Special column from 02-03-2026
1. When the USA and Israel talk about several weeks of war in the Middle East, this is not without consequences for international trade.
2. Indeed, the Strait of Hormuz is often referred to as the "lung of the world economy".
With the tensions between Iran and the USA, a closure of this strategic lock would not only be a regional incident, but a systemic earthquake.
Strategic importance: A lock with no alternative
3. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important maritime crossing point for energy trade. Around 20 to 25% of global oil consumption (i.e. more than 20 million barrels per day) and a third of the world's Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) pass through there.
4. It is the only exit route for massive exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.
More than 75% of the oil transiting the strait is destined for Asian markets (China, Japan, India, South Korea), making Hormuz the umbilical cord of the world's factories.
Major risks in global trade
5. In the event of a total blockage, the barrel of Brent could cross the $100 mark in a few days. This would lead to a sharp rise in prices and transport costs, fueling global inflation that is difficult for central banks to contain.
6. Furthermore, even without total closure, the simple risk of missile & drone attacks causes maritime insurance premiums to explode. Some shipowners could refuse to sail in the area, effectively reducing the available transport offer.
Workaround scenarios:
7. There is currently no alternative capable of absorbing the entire Hormuz flow. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have pipelines to the Red Sea or the Gulf of Oman, but their capacity covers only 15 to 20% of the strait's usual traffic.
8. The USA and Europe can draw on their reserves but this is only a short-term remedy.
9. In summary, if Iran used Hormuz as a weapon of war, it would amount to "cardiac arrest" for the global economy.
It is precisely for this reason that the USA and its allies consider free movement across the Strait an absolute red line.
IMPACT ON THE DRC AND OUTLOOK
10. Although the DRC is geographically far from the Persian Gulf, its economy is hyper-dependent on global flows. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cause a shock wave which would result in:
●The explosion in the cost of living (Imported inflation)
●The impact on the mining sector which consumes enormous quantities of fuel to operate the machines.
11. On a STRUCTURAL level, if the DRC cannot prevent the closure of Hormuz, it can reduce its vulnerability by transforming its oil on site by relaunching SOCIR (Société Congolaise des Industries de Raffinage), by producing its own food (agro-industrial parks) and by using its immense hydroelectric potential (Inga).
On a CJUNCTURAL level (emergency):
●Constitution and management of strategic reserves by increasing the storage capacities of SEP Congo (Services des Entreprises Pétrolières) and SONAHYDROC.
●Creation of strategic reserves of basic foodstuffs (corn, rice) to stabilize prices on the domestic market when import costs soar.
12. In conclusion, to cope with these types of exogenous shocks which are inevitable, the DRC has chosen economic diversification and supply routes.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, global traffic will shift massively towards the Atlantic, hence the strategic importance of the DEEP WATER PORT OF BANANA AND THE LOBITO CORRIDOR.
Planning allows you to anticipate.
Good start to the week
Julien PALUKU
