Global Trade: Artificial Intelligence – the new driving force behind international trade
Artificial intelligence (AI) is now emerging as a new driver of global trade. Data published by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for the first half of 2026 highlights the growing role of semiconductors, servers and other AI-related goods in global trade dynamics.
According to the organisation, AI-related products accounted for 47 per cent of the growth in global trade in goods during the first six months of the year, whilst trade in these products rose by 67 per cent year-on-year, extending and accelerating the strong expansion already observed in 2024 and 2025.
According to its forecasts, AI-related investment will remain a major driver of trade in goods until 2027. Global spending on AI-related infrastructure is expected to rise by at least 30 per cent in 2026, whilst capital expenditure in this area is projected to grow by a further 10 to 20 per cent in 2027.
Given the stronger-than-expected growth in merchandise trade in the first half of 2026, the WTO now forecasts a 3.9 per cent increase in the volume of global merchandise trade in 2026, up from a forecast of 1.9 per cent in March, before rising further to 4.1 per cent in 2027.
According to the latest ‘Global Trade Outlook and Statistics’, published on 8 October, ‘this revision reflects the fact that global supply chains have adapted to disruptions in the energy and fertiliser markets, whilst strong investment in AI-related infrastructure has boosted trade in goods that facilitate AI’.
Analysis of the data shows that significant investment in artificial intelligence has provided a strong boost to global trade in goods, which proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026, despite disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East: trade volumes rose by 3.5 per cent, thanks to supply chains adapting to disruptions in the energy, fertiliser and transport markets, as well as the reorientation of trade flows.
Whilst crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by around 24 per cent and exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell by 47 per cent in the first half of 2026, the WTO notes that “increased shipments from other suppliers helped to limit the decline in global exports to around 6 per cent for crude oil and just 1 per cent for LNG”.
The figures also show that fertiliser markets have adjusted despite severe disruptions; global imports of nitrogen fertilisers were only 2.8 per cent below recent averages, whilst those of phosphate fertilisers were 2.2 per cent higher, thanks to the involvement of alternative suppliers. The organisation adds that trade flows have been redirected via other ports and corridors, whilst global container traffic has remained resilient, rising by 3.9 per cent from the start of the year through to July.
The regional trade outlook remains mixed. In 2026, Asia is expected to record the strongest growth in merchandise exports (9.9 per cent), ahead of North America (5.7 per cent), Africa (5.6 per cent) and South America (3.4 per cent). Conversely, exports are expected to fall in Europe (-0.1 per cent) and contract sharply in the Middle East (-17.2 per cent) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (-3.9 per cent).
On the imports side, Asia (9.5 per cent), Africa (8.9 per cent) and the CIS (8.8 per cent) are expected to show the strongest growth, whilst North America (1.4 per cent) and Europe (0.5 per cent) are expected to record only modest increases. The Middle East is expected to see a sharp decline (-15.4 per cent).
Exports of IT services rose by 18 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter and are expected to grow by 12 per cent in the second quarter, according to WTO estimates. Exports of financial services, meanwhile, rose by 14 per cent in the second quarter.
Furthermore, trade in commercial services rose by 14 per cent year-on-year in value terms in the first quarter of 2026, followed by a 10 per cent increase in the second quarter. According to the WTO, this slowdown is attributable to the conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted transport and travel services – two sectors heavily reliant on the region’s role as a global transit hub.
